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Your insider's guide to watching the election

Your insider's guide to watching the election

| October 30, 2020
As we are only a few short days away from one of the biggest elections in our country’s history, I wanted to provide a few tidbits for you to impress your coffee buddies this weekend when you are at Starbucks this weekend or with the family on Tuesday night. You may in fact be able to call the election before it’s actually official!
Right now, the most probable outcome is not only a Biden Victory but also, a “Blue Wave” which means the Democrats control the presidency, the senate and the House of Representatives. As much as the polls are more right than they are wrong (2016), I do have some doubts about the polls for no other reason than at the beginning of the year, before Covid-19, unemployment numbers were at the lowest levels we have ever seen and the economy was booming, polls still showed Biden winning. This reason alone has made me skeptical.
Nevertheless, the polls are heavily skewed toward Biden at the moment and that is where the betting odds are.
Now for Trump to turn the election world on its head, he is going to have to win and win a lot. There are about 11 swing states that will decide this election and I have broken them down into two categories:
First, here are six MUST WIN states for Trump. IF he doesn’t win all of them, you can turn off the TV and go to bed.
MUST WIN: Texas, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa. These states have a lot of electoral votes and that is why they are ‘must win’.
If the votes fall in the President’s favor, he will have amassed approximately 247 of the 270 electoral votes needed and that’s when things will get interesting.
For the remaining 5 swing states, Trump needs to be able to come up with a combination of wins to reach 23 electoral votes.
  • Pennsylvania (20 votes)
  • Michigan (16 votes)
  • Wisconsin (10 votes)
  • Arizona (11 votes)
  • Nevada (6 votes)
If Trump WINS Pennsylvania, he needs just one other of the remaining four states to be re-elected.
If Trump LOSES Pennsylvania, then he must win Michigan and Wisconsin or Arizona.
If Trump LOSES both Pennsylvania & Michigan, he then needs to the remaining three: Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Needless to say, it’s a tall order with little room for error. Whatever the outcome is, we will be ready to make the necessary changes in your portfolio to position you for success in 2021 and beyond!
Have a great weekend!